Intermodal demand grows as truckload capacity tightens

U.S. intermodal market overview for August

Intermodal demand continues to grow, with volumes consistently tracking above the five-year average. Domestic U.S. intermodal activity remained robust through June and into July. According to the Association of American Railroads, weekly intermodal volumes reached approximately 289,000 units on 20 June, 293,000 units on 27 June and 297,000 units 18 July—each representing double-digit year-over-year (y/y) growth.

The Intermodal Association of North America also reports that its volume index remains near its highest levels of 2026, reflecting sustained domestic demand.

Over-the-road spot market rates continue to reflect a tighter market than intermodal. Even taking into account recent, seasonally expected decreases in truckload spot rates, C.H. Robinson continues to forecast a 34% increase for the year and the truckload market is expected to be tight for the remainder of the year. Motor carriers continue to face significant structural cost pressures, including maintenance, insurance, equipment repositioning and driver wages. As truckload costs rise, intermodal is an attractive alternative across a broader range of lanes.

Intermodal contract environment

As of mid-summer, several markets have been identified as capacity constrained. Railroads are prioritising committed contractual customers to manage container bookings.

Shippers seeking committed contract rates out of California, Texas, Salt Lake City and Chicago should expect limited availability. Given current network constraints, new long-term agreements are unlikely to begin until early 2027. In the near term, freight originating from these markets will face higher rates and tighter capacity conditions.

Markets experiencing the strongest growth include:

• Los Angeles
• Chicago
• Atlanta
• Houston, Dallas and Laredo in Texas
• Toledo, Ohio
• Jacksonville, Florida

More broadly, intermodal adoption continues to expand nationwide. During the first half of 2026, many shippers shifted freight back to rail to offset rising truckload costs, improve network efficiency and diversify transportation options. New regulatory limitations on truck drivers have contributed to tighter trucking capacity and difficulty retaining drivers, further reinforcing the long-term value proposition of intermodal transportation.

Intermodal spot market dynamics

Intermodal spot pricing remains competitive, although upward pressure is beginning to build in high-utilisation markets. Truckload pricing continues to increase y/y at a faster pace than intermodal rates, widening rail's cost advantage across many lanes. Demand growth remains strongest in the 550- to 1,500-mile range, where freight that migrated to truckload during the softer freight market is increasingly returning to intermodal.

Fuel cost impact

The U.S. average diesel price increased to $4.96 per gallon in July, up from $3.78 per gallon at the same time last year.

Fuel surcharge programs tied to the U.S. Energy Information Administration index continue to adjust accordingly. However, an important distinction remains:

• Intermodal fuel surcharges are generally percentage-based and applied to linehaul charges.
• Truckload fuel surcharges are typically calculated on a per-mile basis.

Applying truckload fuel methodologies to intermodal freight can unnecessarily increase transportation costs. Aligning fuel programmes with intermodal pricing structures allows shippers to preserve more of the savings associated with converting truckload freight to intermodal.

Strategies for off-cycle bids

Committed intermodal pricing varies by region.

• U.S. West Coast outbound: Rates continue to rise quickly. New long-term agreements remain extremely limited and generally are not expected until 2027.
• Elsewhere: Moderate rate increases are expected, varying by local capacity conditions. Both container supply and driver availability are becoming increasingly constrained.

Off-cycle pricing requests and mini-bids continue to increase. To improve outcomes, shippers can:

• Assess freight compatibility with rail, including any blocking and bracing requirements
• Identify lanes where extended transit times are acceptable
• Evaluate total landed cost rather than focusing solely on linehaul rates
• Implement blended mode strategies to reduce network volatility

Service performance

Class I railroads continue to deliver strong operational performance, supported by:

• Consistent train velocity
• Reduced terminal dwell
• Lower locomotive inactive time
• Fewer held trains

Despite these service improvements, overall network capacity continues to tighten. Container positioning is becoming increasingly important as demand grows and regional imbalances persist, particularly across the western United States. As a result, service reliability remains strong, but access to containers and committed capacity is becoming a more significant factor in successful intermodal execution.

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