Mexico blockades and Canada carrier crackdown impact trucking

U.S.–Mexico

Disruptions

Road blockades across 17 states, organized by transport and agricultural groups in late November and stretching into early December, highlight operational risks in the region. The Confederation of National Chambers of Commerce, Services, and Tourism (Concanaco) estimates the disruptions caused losses between 3–6 billion pesos.

Although some blockades were lifted through government negotiations, underlying issues of cargo security and high carrier operating costs persist. For shippers, these events are recurring risks that must be accounted for in supply chain planning and transit time calculations across Mexico highways.

Trade trends

The U.S.–Mexico cross-border freight market presents a complex picture. On one hand, overall Mexico exports reached another record high in October, driven by historic growth in non-automotive manufacturing as companies continue to leverage nearshoring. On the other hand, the automotive sector, particularly heavy-duty truck manufacturing, is severely contracting. Weakening demand in the United States, combined with new tariff pressures, has created two sharply different realities within the same trade corridor.

The latest available data underscores these contrasts:

• Total automotive exports fell 14% year-over-year (y/y) in October, including decreases of 14% to the United States and 14.1% to other markets. According to ANPACT, heavy vehicle production fell 59.3% and exports dropped 58.3% y/y in September 2025. INEGI data shows exports continued to fall in October, declining 55.3%.
• Non-automotive manufacturing exports surged 34.8% in October.
• Overall exports to the United States grew 17.1% and to other global markets grew 12.3%. In electrical and electronic products, growth has been strong enough for Mexico to surpass China as the top supplier to the United States as of July 2025.

These divergent trends suggest trucking rates will likely remain stable for now, as robust demand from non-automotive sectors balances softening demand and newly available capacity from the contracting automotive industry. But operational risks remain high.

Looking ahead, the market is defined by a mix of risks and opportunities:

• Key risks include the impact of U.S. tariffs, uncertainty surrounding the review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement (USMCA) in 2026, and the potential for renewed road blockades disrupting key corridors.
• Conversely, opportunities remain strong, driven by continued growth in non-automotive sectors such as electronics and machinery. These industries benefit directly from ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions, reinforcing Mexico’s role as a critical nearshoring partner for North American supply chains.

Foreign investment

Headline figures show Mexico attracted a record $40.9 billion in foreign direct investment in the first nine months of 2025, supporting the nearshoring narrative. Yet Banxico data reveals that only 16% represents new investments, with the majority coming from reinvested profits by established companies. While this indicates confidence from current players, it also suggests fresh capital is entering at a slower pace, likely due to caution around the USMCA review and domestic policy uncertainty.

Policy updates

The required adoption of Mexico's Electronic Manifestación de Valor (MV) for imports, which was slated to start December 9, 2025, has been deferred for several months. Until March 31, 2026, importers retain the option of using either the legacy physical declaration form or the new electronic procedure to submit the value of their imported goods.

Canada–Mexico

Canada is quietly deepening its reliance on Mexico for auto parts. Statistics Canada data shows Mexico now supplies more auto parts to Canada than the United States, reflecting the deepening integration of the North American supply chain under USMCA. Mexico’s role extends beyond being a U.S. partner, positioning it as a central hub for the region and underscoring its strategic importance for both Canadian and American industries.

U.S.–Canada

Driver Inc. crackdown

The Government of Canada has launched an inspection blitz in the greater Toronto and Hamilton area of Ontario to crack down on misclassification of truck drivers as independent contractors. Called “Driver Inc.,” some carriers force drivers to incorporate, which is a violation of the Canada Labour Code and denies drivers rights they’d have as employees, such as minimum wage, paid leave, and safety protections. The blitz includes full investigations, penalties, and information-sharing with the Canada Revenue Agency for coordinated enforcement.

Carriers may temporarily reduce load commitments to avoid risk, which may slow freight movement, tighten available capacity, and lead to higher rates. We’re monitoring the situation closely to see how it develops.

Winter weather impacts to capacity

As the winter season continues, shippers should be aware of the impact of snow and icy road conditions on Canadian roads. Carriers may prioritize lighter loads and decline heavier freight to reduce risk, meaning it will not be business as usual for those looking to maximize trailer weight. Planning and flexibility will be key to maintaining on-time shipments.

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