Trucking capacity for holiday season tightens

Truckload capacity in the wake of Thanksgiving has tightened more than expected and retailers should expect elevated spot market rates in conjunction. Longer lead times and flexible pickup windows can help to mitigate costs.

For more details and the increase in our spot rate forecast, see the Truckload section of this report.

Getting ready to bid your freight

As you’re preparing your 2026 requests for proposals (RPFs), here are some of our tips for retail shippers:

1. Clearly outline your requirements: Know your operational excellence goals, cost targets and desired service levels.
2. Segment your freight: Work with your logistics providers to determine which of your delivery lanes should be put out to bid, which should be awarded to a carrier directly and which are better suited for the spot market.
3. Review your ratio of live load to drop trailer: Bidding them together gives you opportunities to optimise both, to examine the aggregate cost of your operations and flex between live load and drop trailer when it’s advantageous.
4. Review your carrier scorecard: Understand who has been performing best for you and who is best positioned to perform for you as trucking capacity tightens in 2026.
5. Define mid-year review expectations: Outline specific performance metrics, key deliverables and areas for improvement.

Inventory management unlocks advantages for retail

In a recent survey, 90% of retailers reported they use AI, but only 11% are ready to expand it. One big disconnect is a general misunderstanding of the difference between automation and true artificial intelligence. Retailers may have automated processes, but not the ability to unify consumer and supplier data across platforms and generate new insights that tangibly improve the retail experience.

One of AI’s most effective uses for retailers lies in forecasting—predicting the optimal mix of assortment, quantities and locations—and executing on that knowledge. AI systems used by retailers today can incorporate consumer preferences, seasonality, promotional impacts, merchandising impacts and the economic landscape. They detect patterns and can provide smarter inventory recommendations.

But in a volatile trade environment and economic uncertainty, forecasting can fall short. The consequences can be significant: lost sales from stockouts, markdowns due to overstocking and unnecessary operational costs such as expedited delivery. Customer dissatisfaction can lead to long-term traffic and sales declines.

Even when merchandise is already in warehouses, distribution centres and shops, there’s a lot retailers can do to manage inventory tightly. Centralising your purchase-order management across your suppliers and tracking inventory at the item level can help you to redistribute stock and make real-time replenishment decisions so that the right goods end up in the right locations, at the right time.

Alternative fuels lower emissions and increase consumer satisfaction

Despite recent U.S. government policy changes, a new round-up of global consumer data confirms that most consumers still care about sustainability and it shows in their purchasing decisions. More than 80% say poor environmental practices will alienate them from a brand or business. More than 60% say they often or always seek sustainable products and 10% even state they would pay more for sustainable products.

Sustainable products account for over 15% market share, according to the report, but make up more than 30% of growth—expanding nearly three times faster than non-sustainable alternatives.

Retailers looking for more ways to reduce their environmental impact can consider low-carbon alternative fuels in their freight transportation.

A C.H. Robinson survey of approximately 1,000 carriers found that over 20% use environmentally friendly fuel or equipment. Of those surveyed, 59% of carriers reported using biodiesel, 31.5% use renewable diesel, 1.7% use compressed natural gas fuel and 1.1% use electric vehicles (EVs).

C.H. Robinson’s global network, which is audited to avoid double-counting, logged 2.33 million miles in 2024 using alternative fuels and EVs, helping customers reduce carbon emissions across their supply chains.

More stable U.S. trade policy creates optimisation window

Since mid-October, U.S. trade actions have shifted from escalation to relative stability, creating a planning window for shippers. The tariff truce between the United States and China gives businesses time to solidify mitigation strategies and diversify sourcing. This can include nearshoring and friendshoring, for instance to other Asian countries or North America.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government has lowered tariffs on goods from South Korea to 15%.

Key factors in the coming weeks and months:

Tariff authority court case

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on whether the administration has the right to levy tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is expected in December or January. This could end or reshape certain tariffs and lead to refunds. However, it is an open question how timely or robust these would be. Given the possibility the court may limit refunds to plaintiffs rather than all affected importers, some companies, with Costco as the most notable example, have initiated legal action against the administration.

Section 232 risks

Importers should expect continued investigations and tariffs on materials and products deemed important to national security. Likely targets include critical minerals such as rare earths. Polysilicon, semiconductor materials and equipment and certain pharmaceutical precursors are also under review.

USMCA review

The scheduled 2026 review process has begun and is expected to result in sector-specific adjustments if the agreement is extended, amended or replaced next year. 

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