Critical mineral prices and supply are in flux

Critical mineral demand continues to be high while pricing trends vary. The primary driver for demand growth across many critical minerals continues to be their use in electric vehicles (EVs), battery storage and renewable energy infrastructure.

• A global deficit of refined copper is projected for 2026, due to supply disruptions such as a mud-flow disaster in September at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the second largest copper mine in the world. Its output for 2026 is expected to be down 35%.
• Prices for battery minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite have all declined during the last year as the U.S. EV market is in a lull. Lithium prices have dropped by roughly 80% since their peak in 2023.
• Rare earth mineral prices are in flux due to geopolitical manoeuvring. China’s export levels rose in October 2025, while the United States worked to decrease China’s hold on supply by backing projects in Brazil and exploring options in the Pacific.
• Aluminium and silver prices were up in November, with silver reaching record highs due to stagnant mining output.

The U.S. Geological Survey released an updated list of critical minerals in November, adding copper, silver, uranium and potash, among others. The list designates minerals essential for national security, economic stability and supply chain resilience.

To hedge against these price and supply swings, companies should consider diversifying suppliers, securing long-term contracts for key minerals and improving visibility into upstream risks like mine disruptions and geopolitical shifts.

Aggressive new U.S. oil and gas drilling plans

The U.S. administration unveiled its most aggressive offshore drilling plan in decades, proposing up to 34 lease auctions between 2026 and 2031, including new sites off California and Alaska. The move sparked fierce opposition from coastal states and environmental groups.

The International Energy Agency projects that oil and gas demand could continue rising until 2050 under current policies, citing slower-than-expected global adoption of EVs and renewed reliance on fossil fuels, especially in the United States. This marks a significant shift from earlier forecasts that expected demand to peak around 2030.

Reducing transportation-related emissions

Transportation is responsible for approximately 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions. For the entire supply chain (freight transport plus related activities), that figure rises to 11%. Against this backdrop, the Amsterdam-based Smart Freight Centre, working with the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, is developing new guidance to quantify the climate impacts of these emissions.

While demands by some countries at this year’s U.N. climate conference in Brazil to set up a phase-out of fossil fuels went unheeded, the 2018 Paris Climate Agreement still aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by 2050. This would require a complete transformation of energy systems, including those powering transportation. Carbon pricing and regulatory demands are expected to rise significantly. Markets for carbon-neutral goods and services are predicted to reach $10.3 trillion globally by 2050.

These dynamics are driving significant supply chain changes, especially for companies that operate globally. Shippers pursuing sustainability goals can assess emissions, set science-based targets, invest in low-carbon technologies and alternative fuels and collaborate with their logistics provider on climate-friendly practices.

More stable U.S. trade policy creates optimisation window

Since mid-October, U.S. trade actions have shifted from escalation to relative stability, creating a planning window for shippers. The tariff truce between the United States and China gives businesses time to solidify mitigation strategies and sourcing diversification. This can include nearshoring and friendshoring, for instance to other Asian countries or North America.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government has lowered tariffs on goods from South Korea to 15%.

Key factors in the coming weeks and months:

Tariff authority court case

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on whether the administration has the right to levy tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is expected in December or January. This could end or reshape tariffs and lead to refunds. However, it is an open question how timely or robust these would be.

Section 232 risks

Importers should expect continued investigations and tariffs on materials and products deemed important to national security. Likely targets include critical minerals such as rare earths. Solar inputs and semiconductor materials and equipment are also under review.

USMCA review

The scheduled 2026 review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement has begun and is expected to result in sector-specific adjustments if the agreement is extended, amended or replaced next year.

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