Driver regulations and winter ops reshape December drayage

North America

Global trends

Regulatory changes could affect driver availability for drayage carriers over the next one to three years. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) estimates indicate that up to 5% of all commercial driving licence (CDL) holders may be removed from the workforce due to new immigration-related policies, with concentrated impacts in states such as California, Arizona and Texas where losses could reach 15-25%. These localised reductions may create drayage shortages for shippers operating in high-impact regions, even while national capacity appears sufficient.

English-language proficiency enforcement has intensified, but inconsistent application across states adds operational uncertainty. Drivers may pass inspections in one state but fail in another due to subjective interpretations, prompting some carriers to avoid high-enforcement states. This behaviour effectively removes capacity from these markets and creates routeing inefficiencies, underscoring the need for shippers to maintain flexible routeing options and diverse carrier relationships.

Rising operational costs are adding pressure across the sector. Wages have increased 15-20%, insurance costs 25-35% and equipment costs 15-25%, particularly affecting smaller carriers that historically provided flexible, specialised services. Exits by small carriers may reduce competition and service options, giving larger carriers greater pricing power and limiting flexibility in regions where specialised capacity is critical.

Drayage capacity is already tightening at select ports, with peak-period booking windows extending from same-day or next-day pickup to two to three days in advance. Any sudden surge in freight demand, such as accelerated inventory restocking, could expose localised capacity gaps within weeks. Shippers should plan proactively, monitor regulatory and enforcement developments and engage multiple carriers to maintain operational flexibility and avoid disruption.

Regional highlights

U.S. Central

Forecast: If approved by regulators, Union Pacific’s (UP) acquisition of Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) could enable direct routeing from U.S. West Coast (USWC) ports to Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Detroit and Louisville. This would bypass the Chicago rail hub, reducing congestion, improving inland transit reliability and potentially saving 12-24 hours per delivery.

Market dynamics: Containers from Los Angeles-Long Beach to Midwest markets currently transit through Chicago, requiring either long-haul trucking or crosstown rail terminal transfers, which add both time and operational complexity. Chicago handles roughly 4 million intermodal containers annually, making it North America’s largest rail hub. Those high volumes create chronic congestion, with two to four day dwell times.

Direct West Coast-Midwest routeing would eliminate these transfers, reduce congestion and streamline drayage operations. Shippers moving large volumes could also see meaningful supply chain savings. Regulatory approval is uncertain, with a potential timeline extending to at least 2027, so shippers should monitor progress rather than make immediate operational changes.

U.S. East Coast

Forecast: Savannah is expected to see steady but moderate cargo flow through early 2026, with congestion holding at roughly four days and chassis shortages continuing to constrain inland movement. Georgia Port Authority anticipates volume recovery beginning in 2026 as new infrastructure—most notably the Blue Ridge Connector—comes online.

Market dynamics: The Port of Savannah has handled 4.8 million 20-feet equivalent units (TEU)s year-to-date through October, a 4% increase versus last year despite an 8.4% year over year (y/y) dip in October alone. Current congestion remains moderate at approximately four days, driven in part by persistent chassis shortages at high-volume terminals such as Garden City. Limited chassis availability is extending container dwell times and increasing detention and demurrage exposure for shippers.

Looking ahead, Georgia Port Authority expects volume recovery and more fluid inland connectivity beginning in early 2026. The Blue Ridge Connector inland rail facility, scheduled to open in Spring 2026, is designed to ease terminal pressure by expanding inland rail capacity and improving cargo evacuation from the port. Until then, chassis constraints and moderate congestion will remain key operational risks for shippers using Savannah.

U.S. Gulf

Forecast: Houston export demand, especially for resins and petrochemical products, remains strong due to competitive U.S. production costs. Ongoing dredging through early December is contributing to berthing delays, with some vessels experiencing 12-24 hours of additional wait time for berth assignment.

Market dynamics: The Port of Houston remains export-dominant, with outbound volumes exceeding imports by 15-20%. Resin demand is particularly strong as manufacturers build inventory ahead of potential year-end disruptions and position material for Q1 2026 production. This concentrated demand creates competition for trucking capacity and terminal appointments, occasionally extending drayage booking windows from same day to two to three days during peak periods.

Ongoing dredging through early December is temporarily reducing available berth positions, creating 12-24 hour vessel delays and the potential for cargo rollovers if berthing windows cannot accommodate arrivals. The dredging is essential to maintain draught depth for larger vessels and ensure the port can continue handling fully loaded containers and bulk carriers.

Shippers should plan Houston-origin deliveries with a 12-24 hour buffer during this period. Once dredging operations are complete, berth wait times are expected to return to normal levels of six to eight hours.

U.S. West

Forecast: Strict enforcement of English language requirements is expected to reduce the Southern California drayage driver pool by 20-25% over the next one to three years. Losing up to a quarter of drivers in the region could put significant pressure on local drayage capacity, particularly during peak delivering seasons when demand can surge 30-40%.

Market dynamics: Southern California and Arizona are experiencing some of the largest impacts. The region’s high concentration of drivers who are immigrants and the higher likelihood of Mexican drivers taking freight across the border makes it particularly vulnerable. Many of these drivers have operated for years but may lack the required English proficiency documentation.

Small carriers are exiting the market due to compliance costs, low freight rates and rising operational expenses. Insurance, fuel, maintenance and equipment costs have increased significantly, compressing margins for carriers with fewer than 10 trucks, forcing some to shut down operations entirely.

Driver availability at key ports including Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland is tightening. Peak-period booking windows have extended from same-day or next-day pickup to two to three days and some appointments are being declined when all available drivers are committed. While current demand remains manageable, any sudden volume surge—such as holiday imports or accelerated inventory builds—could create delays of three to seven days in cargo pickup and delivery.

Canada

Forecast: Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Kansas City are implementing winter operating plans, including shorter trains (120-140 railcars vs. typical 150-180) and reduced speeds (35-45 mph vs. 50-60 mph) during extreme cold. These measures are expected to extend inland transit times by 12-24 hours, especially during peak periods or severe weather.

Container dwell times vary by port, with British Columbia experiencing the longest delays at 8-10 days due to high import volumes and limited rail capacity, while Eastern ports such as Halifax maintain shorter one to two-day dwell times.

Market dynamics: Congestion at Canadian ports remains elevated due to sustained import volumes (up 8-12% y/y at Vancouver and Prince Rupert) and railcar shortages that limit efficient cargo evacuation. Containers waiting for rail transport accumulate in port yards, reducing terminal capacity and slowing vessel operations, creating cascading schedule delays that can persist for weeks.

Winter operating plans, including shorter train lengths (reducing containers moved per trip by 15-25%) and speed restrictions, are designed to maintain safety amid sub-zero temperatures, snow and ice, but they further extend inland transit times and reduce rail capacity just as holiday import volumes peak. Rail prioritisation favours time-sensitive or contracted deliveries, meaning spot-market cargo may face three to five-day delays during peak winter periods.

Low water levels at the Port of Montreal are limiting vessel draught to 90-95% of normal capacity, reducing weekly container throughput and increasing competition for space. Container dwell times vary by location: British Columbia (8-10 days), Montreal (5-6 days), Saint John (5-6 days), Toronto (1-2 days) and Halifax (0.6-3.8 days), reflecting differences in port congestion, rail connectivity and terminal efficiency.

Empty return service (ERS) remains restricted at some West Coast terminals due to high dwell times, forcing shippers to return empties to original locations. This adds time and costs to container repositioning and reduces operational flexibility.

Key takeaways

• For Houston deliveries, build a one-to-two-day buffer into delivery commitments through early December due to dredging-related berthing delays.
• Plan for longer inland transit times from Canadian ports from December through February. Add 12-24 hours for winter rail operations and account for extended dwell times, particularly in British Columbia (8-10 days) and Montreal (5-6 days).
• Track port-specific operational conditions, including water levels at Montreal and capacity changes at West Coast Canadian ports.

Europe

Global trends

European port and inland operations continue to face challenges driven by equipment shortages and limited trucking capacity. Container and chassis availability remains tight in inland markets—especially in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands—where congestion and driver constraints are extending inland transit times by two to four days, even when vessels arrive on schedule.

Port congestion also remains elevated across Northern Europe. The Port of Rotterdam is reporting extensive dwell times—approximately 14 days at RWG Terminal and four days at Europe Container Terminals (ECT). In Antwerp, congestion intensified following Belgium’s late-November national strike, with more than 20 vessels delayed outside the port. In France, rail sector strikes on 2 December caused added strain to inland connectivity, though the full maritime impact remains limited.

While earlier labour disruptions in Belgium and the Netherlands have not resulted in lasting structural impacts, intermittent actions remain a risk as the region moves into early 2026—creating continued schedule variability and the potential for cargo delays.

Key takeaways

• Plan for two to four days additional inland transit time in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands, due to equipment shortages and limited trucking availability.
• Monitor labour action developments that may disrupt inland cargo movements to and from French ports.
• Account for extended container dwell times at Rotterdam when planning cargo pickup and delivery schedules.

South America

Global trends

Operational efficiency in South America remains uneven. Pacific Coast ports like Buenaventura are experiencing significant congestion due to ongoing infrastructure upgrades. Meanwhile, Atlantic Coast ports such as Cartagena are improving reliability through automation and productivity enhancements. As a result, cargo is being diverted toward more efficient gateways, where shippers can benefit from shorter transit times and more predictable schedules.

Brazilian ports continue to experience capacity constraints from a combination of high yard utilisation, weather disruptions and channel limitations, creating variability in cargo flow and delivery predictability. Montevideo operations are gradually normalising following strike action and system updates, though schedule reliability remains lower than pre-disruption levels. Overall, cargo routeing decisions in South America are increasingly influenced by operational performance, port capacity and reliability rather than proximity alone.

Regional highlights

South America East Coast

Forecast: Brazilian ports will continue to face operational pressure through December due to high yard utilisation, seasonal weather disruptions and existing vessel backlogues. Santos is expected to remain congested with minimal buffer for volume surges, while Rio Grande will continue operating under restricted berthing windows because of shallow channel depth, with no meaningful recovery anticipated before Q2 2026.

Montevideo has resumed operations after November’s strike action, but productivity is likely to remain limited through late December or early January as terminal operators adjust to a new operating system. Berth waits of two to three days are expected until the vessel queue clears.

Market dynamics: Santos remains highly congested, with terminal utilisation at 85-90%, compounded by heavy summer rains, flooding and cascading vessel delays from previous weeks. Rio Grande continues to face throughput constraints tied to its shallow 11-metre channel and limited berthing windows. Itajaí sees restricted calls due to draught and yard limitations, while Navegantes, Itapoá and Paranaguá operate near 78-80% utilisation and experience weather-related crane downtime several days each month.

Montevideo has resumed operations following a 10-day strike but is still operating at roughly half of normal productivity as terminal staff adapt to a new operating system. The port is temporarily using a first-in, first-out approach for vessel assignment, resulting in two to three days of berth waiting time.

Shippers seeking more predictable performance may consider Imbituba, which offers underutilised capacity (38%) with carrier incentives, as well as Salvador, Suape and Pecém, which maintain moderate utilisation and stable operations. Fortaleza’s fruit export season is creating temporary refrigerated demand that may affect equipment availability for other cargo types. The suspension of the Manaus low water surcharge provides cost clarity through the end of 2026.

South America West Coast

Forecast: Buenaventura is expected to face operational challenges through at least Q1 2026 as civil works continue, with completion not anticipated until March or April. Cartagena offers a more reliable alternative, with carriers increasingly promoting the port to shippers seeking to avoid Buenaventura congestion.

Market dynamics: Buenaventura’s operations remain constrained by ongoing civil works, including berth reconstruction, crane rail repairs and access road improvements. These projects have extended average container dwell times from 4-5 days to 8-12 days, increasing storage costs and creating uncertainty in delivery timing.

By contrast, Cartagena has improved efficiency through automation, upgraded terminal systems and labour training, reducing container processing times by 30-40% over the past year. Several carriers have launched new services to North America, including weekly U.S. East Coast and bi-weekly Gulf services, making Cartagena a more reliable alternative for cargo bound for the United States, Brazil and Europe.

For exporters in western Colombia, trucking to Cartagena adds two to three days and 300-400 miles inland, but the three to five days saved by avoiding Buenaventura congestion typically outweighs the extra transit. For shippers with routeing flexibility, Cartagena is generally the preferred option unless specific ocean service requirements dictate otherwise.

Key takeaways

• Use Cartagena over Buenaventura when possible—while trucking adds two to three days, it is typically outweighed by the three to five days saved by avoiding Buenaventura congestion.
• Leverage alternative Brazilian ports—Rio de Janeiro, Imbituba, Salvador, Suape, Pecém or Fortaleza—to bypass congestion at Santos, Rio Grande, Itajaí, Itapoá and Paranaguá. Although services are less frequent, lower congestion often leads to faster end-to-end transit.
• Plan for two to three days berthing delay at Montevideo as operations recover from strike-related disruption and system changes.

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